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When is Christmas ham cheapest?
Spiral ham (spiral-sliced, bone-in) in US grocery ads, the 8 weeks before Christmas and Christmas week, 2014–2025. Christmas is 8 weeks away.
How the method held up: for each season we picked the lower-priced weeks using only earlier seasons, then checked that season. The picks (not always these weeks: they matched today's in 1 of 9 seasons) averaged below that season's window average in 9 of 9 seasons (−10.0% on average; best season −17.3%, worst −2.0%). How we check.
This year: 2 weeks before through Christmas week means USDA's weekly ad reports dated about Dec 5–25, 2026.
The historical pattern
Descriptive, all completed seasons: average ad price each week compared with that season's average for the whole window. Below zero = lower than that season's average. Weeks with ads in fewer than 6 seasons are left out. These in-sample figures are larger than the walk-forward results above.
Every season
| Year | Christmas | Lowest-priced week | Price | Christmas week | Weeks with ads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Dec 25 | 3 weeks before (Dec 1) | $2.18 | $2.22 | 9 of 9 |
| 2024 | Dec 25 | 3 weeks before (Dec 2) | $2.04 | $2.18 | 9 of 9 |
| 2023 | Dec 25 | 8 weeks before (Oct 27) | $1.99 | $2.51 | 9 of 9 |
| 2022 | Dec 25 | 2 weeks before (Dec 9) | $2.39 | $2.56 | 9 of 9 |
| 2021 | Dec 25 | 2 weeks before (Dec 10) | $2.32 | $2.46 | 9 of 9 |
| 2020 | Dec 25 | 8 weeks before (Oct 30) | $1.61 | $1.88 | 9 of 9 |
| 2019 | Dec 25 | Christmas week (Dec 20) | $2.18 | $2.18 | 9 of 9 |
| 2018 | Dec 25 | 2 weeks before (Dec 7) | $2.15 | $2.15 | 9 of 9 |
| 2017 | Dec 25 | 1 week before (Dec 15) | $2.01 | $2.01 | 9 of 9 |
| 2016 | Dec 25 | 3 weeks before (Dec 2) | $2.09 | $2.19 | 9 of 9 |
| 2015 | Dec 25 | 7 weeks before (Nov 6) | $1.86 | $2.15 | 9 of 9 |
| 2014 | Dec 25 | 8 weeks before (Oct 24) | $2.54 | $2.80 | 8 of 9 |
Advertised sale prices per lb, averaged across stores by how many stores USDA reports running each price. Weeks are counted back from Christmas by report date. History, not a forecast. Download weekly prices (CSV) · Report a correction.
Questions
When do spiral ham prices drop before Christmas?
Across all past seasons, spiral ham ads have been lowest-priced on average 2 weeks before through Christmas week (USDA reports dated about Dec 5–25 this year). Tested season by season, the weeks this method picked from earlier seasons only (not always these weeks: they matched today's in 1 of 9 seasons) averaged −10.0% vs that season's average and came in below it in 9 of 9 seasons.
How much is spiral ham per pound right now?
The average advertised sale price in USDA's latest report (week of Oct 19, 2026) was $2.99 per pound.
Is it cheaper to wait until Christmas week?
Christmas week is part of the lower-priced stretch itself, so there's no separate comparison.