About › Data checks

How we check the data

These checks run every time the site updates. Last run: 2026-10-27 15:22.

Publication checks passed. Historical exceptions are listed below.

Two kinds of check: data quality (sections 1–4: are the numbers right? A failure stops the update) and claim evidence (sections 5–7: has a pattern held up well enough for a page to state it? A failed test only means the page doesn't make that claim; the data are fine). Claims follow claims policy version 1.1, fixed on 2026-10-27.

What blocks an update

• Any item whose latest USDA prior-week comparison doesn't match ours, or fewer than 97% of comparisons in the last two years within tolerance.
• Any difference between our meat and egg data and USDA's printed weekly report for the same week: a single line, this week or last.
• This week's regions landing more than 5% from this week's national figure.
• A region name USDA hasn't used before (a sign the report format changed), or a USDA response that's cut off or shaped unexpectedly.
• No new USDA week for more than 21 days (the site then shows a stale-data notice instead of claiming "this week").

Source data

Latest USDA ad week: 2026-10-19 · latest BLS month: 2026-09 · data fetched 2026-10-27 15:22. Rows dropped before averaging:

USDA's API returns some rows twice, identical down to the publication time. Counting them twice would inflate store counts and tilt averages, so exact duplicates are removed. Rows with no positive store count can't be weighted and are left out rather than given an invented weight.

1. Our numbers match USDA's own

USDA's dairy and produce reports also print each item's average for the previous week and the same week last year. We compare those with our own figures for those weeks. The earlier week is identified without looking at its price: the report dated 4–10 days earlier for the prior week, and for the prior year the one week 50–54 weeks back whose store count matches USDA's. When no single week qualifies, the comparison is counted as unresolved, not as a match.

13,217 of 13,391 comparisons since 2014 were within tolerance (1%, or 1.5 cents, whichever is larger, since USDA rounds to the cent). Last two years: 3,140 of 3,141. A further 813 couldn't be tied to a single week and aren't counted.

Most recent exceptions

Most older prior-year gaps are small and reflect USDA restating its own history; ours are the figures as USDA's API returns them for that week. A prior-week gap across a missing week usually means USDA compared with a different week than the one before it in our data.

USDA's meat and egg reports don't print these figures, so those items rely on checks 2 and 3.

1b. Meat and eggs match USDA's printed report

USDA's meat and egg reports don't carry its own prior-week figures in the data feed, so we check them against the report USDA prints each week (the PDF on ams.usda.gov). For every national line it prints, the store count and weighted average price for this week and last week must match the data we built the site from, in both directions. A single difference stops the update. We tested the check by changing one egg price by one cent: it failed, as it should.

2. Regions add up to the national figure

The store-weighted average of the eight USDA regions should land close to the national average every week. This checks that our aggregation is internally consistent. It doesn't prove the item definition is right: a wrong package or unit would be wrong in both.

3. How closely ad prices track BLS prices

BLS average retail prices include both sale and regular prices, so ad prices usually sit below them. This is the correlation of their year-over-year changes (1 = they move identically), over months where both exist.

A low correlation (under 0.5) doesn't by itself mean a processing error. It means ads are a weaker guide to the BLS average for that item, often because sales are deep and frequent or the products don't match exactly.

4. USDA's 2024 reporting change

In September 2024 USDA redesigned these reports and renamed most items. For each item we compare the six months before and after, raw, net of the same months a year earlier, and net of the BLS price's move. This is a screen, not a correction. Where all three show a shift of more than 4% in the same direction, the item's charts carry a note about a possible comparability break.

• Bacon: about −5.6%
• Pork chops: about −4.9%
• Chicken breast: about +6.5%
• Spiral ham: about −9.1%
• Chicken thighs: about +9.0%

Year-over-year changes since September 2025 compare new labels with new labels, so they aren't affected.

Claim evidence

Each claim drawn from history is tested walk-forward: at each past season or year, the method sees only what was available then, makes its pick, and is scored on what happened next. The rules (how many seasons, how often the picks must hold, by how much) are fixed in our claims policy, version 1.1, effective 2026-10-27. They were set while looking at the full history, so results up to that date are development evidence; from then on each completed season is logged and scored as it happens, and the rules don't change without a new version. A pattern that passes is history, not a forecast. Where a method's picks changed over the years, the record belongs to the method, and we say how often its picks matched today's.

Record since the policy took effect

26 claims logged since 2026-10-27; none scored yet: the first are scored after Thanksgiving. The full log (JSON): each claim, the day it was first stated, and its result once the season is over.

5. Holiday buying windows

For each completed season after the first three, we pick the lower-priced weeks (within 3 points of the lowest on average) using only earlier seasons. A season is evaluated only if every picked week had ads. Scored two ways: did the picked weeks average below that season's whole-window average, and were they lower than the holiday-week price (win), within a cent (tie) or higher (loss)? A page says "lower-priced weeks" only if the picks held in at least 70% of at least 8 seasons, and gives a holiday-week answer only with at least 5 seasons and a 70% majority either way.

Every season

Turkey — Thanksgiving

Season	Weeks picked from earlier seasons	vs window average	vs holiday week
2017	3 wk	−6.6%	win (−10.3%)
2018	1 wk	−7.9%	win (−17.6%)
2019	3 wk, 2 wk, 1 wk	−1.3%	win (−17.6%)
2020	3 wk, 2 wk, 1 wk	−6.3%	win (−16.7%)
2021	2 wk, 1 wk	−10.1%	win (−20.6%)
2022	1 wk	not every picked week had ads	–
2023	2 wk, 1 wk	−22.7%	win (−23.8%)
2024	2 wk, 1 wk	−10.5%	win (−10.8%)
2025	2 wk, 1 wk	−7.9%	win (−11.2%)

Spiral ham — Christmas

Season	Weeks picked from earlier seasons	vs window average	vs holiday week
2017	7 wk, hol. wk	−9.7%	–
2018	7 wk, 1 wk, hol. wk	−2.0%	–
2019	1 wk, hol. wk	−17.3%	–
2020	1 wk, hol. wk	−9.1%	–
2021	hol. wk	−7.0%	–
2022	1 wk, hol. wk	−5.7%	–
2023	2 wk, 1 wk, hol. wk	−10.0%	–
2024	2 wk, hol. wk	−15.8%	–
2025	2 wk, hol. wk	−13.7%	–

Spiral ham — Easter

Season	Weeks picked from earlier seasons	vs window average	vs holiday week
2017	8 wk	+20.4%	loss (+28.6%)
2018	8 wk, 2 wk	−5.9%	win (−10.9%)
2019	8 wk	+69.7%	loss (+58.1%)
2020	5 wk	−5.0%	loss (+44.1%)
2021	5 wk	−52.7%	win (−41.3%)
2022	5 wk	+0.6%	loss (+63.7%)
2023	5 wk	−49.7%	win (−45.8%)
2024	5 wk	not every picked week had ads	–
2025	5 wk	+39.3%	loss (+56.5%)
2026	5 wk	−51.1%	win (−60.4%)

Rib roast — Christmas

Season	Weeks picked from earlier seasons	vs window average	vs holiday week
2017	8 wk	−10.3%	win (−17.8%)
2018	7 wk	+16.1%	loss (+8.6%)
2019	8 wk, 7 wk, 3 wk	+2.9%	win (−14.1%)
2020	8 wk, 7 wk	+1.9%	win (−6.4%)
2021	8 wk, 7 wk, 3 wk	−9.5%	win (−11.4%)
2022	8 wk	−3.1%	win (−6.1%)
2023	8 wk	not every picked week had ads	–
2024	8 wk	−3.2%	win (−24.4%)
2025	8 wk, 3 wk	not every picked week had ads	–

Pumpkin — Halloween

Season	Weeks picked from earlier seasons	vs window average	vs holiday week
2017	5 wk, 4 wk, 3 wk	−0.3%	–
2018	5 wk, 4 wk, 3 wk, 2 wk	−7.5%	win (−18.9%)
2019	4 wk, 3 wk, 2 wk	−15.9%	win (−26.6%)
2020	4 wk, 2 wk	−0.1%	–
2021	4 wk, 3 wk, 2 wk	−9.3%	win (−22.9%)
2022	4 wk, 3 wk, 2 wk	−7.1%	win (−31.5%)
2023	4 wk, 3 wk, 2 wk	−6.2%	–
2024	4 wk, 3 wk, 2 wk	−5.0%	win (−16.1%)
2025	4 wk, 3 wk, 2 wk	−6.8%	win (−23.1%)

6. Holiday basket claims

Tested only at fixed check points: every 7 days from 70 to 7 days before the holiday. Today uses the nearest point at or beyond the actual lead, so it's never tested closer to the holiday than it is. "Lower nearer the holiday" is stated when at least 80% of at least 8 seasons agree. A dollar projection is shown only if, over at least 8 seasons projected from earlier seasons only, the average miss is 5% or less, no miss exceeds 10%, and it beats assuming no change. A region is named only as a historical count: below the national basket in at least 80% of at least 8 seasons.

Thanksgiving basket: check point 42 days out (actual 38)

• Lower nearer Thanksgiving: 11 of 11 seasons; median change −14.7%, range −42.4% to −8.9%; left out (not every item had enough ads): 2021. Stated.
• Dollar projection: average miss 11.8%, largest 50%, over 8 seasons; assuming no change missed by 23.8% on average. Not shown.
• Regions below the national basket: Northeast0 of 12, Southeast7 of 12, Midwest11 of 11, South central10 of 12, Southwest6 of 11, Northwest0 of 5. Midwest is named.

Christmas basket: check point 70 days out (actual 67)

• Lower nearer Christmas: 12 of 12 seasons; median change −22.6%, range −29.5% to −3.8%. Stated.
• Dollar projection: average miss 10.1%, largest 30.1%, over 9 seasons; assuming no change missed by 29.1% on average. Not shown.
• Regions below the national basket: Northeast2 of 11, Southeast7 of 10, Midwest8 of 9, South central11 of 11, Southwest6 of 7, Northwest3 of 4. South central is named.

7. Best time of year to buy

Each month's average ad price is compared with the item's average over the 13 months around it (at least 11 with ads); a month is only measured once the 6 months after it are in. For each year whose result is complete, the lower-priced months (within 2 points of the lowest) are picked from data up to the end of the year before, with that data's own trend, so nothing from the test year or later reaches the pick. A test year is evaluated only if every picked month had ads. A page names months only if the picks came in below the trend in at least 80% of at least 8 years, by at least 2% on average, with no more than 4 months picked today. The same for higher-priced months. About 30 items are each tested twice, so a few would pass a looser bar by luck. Turkey, ham and pumpkins are holiday items, timed by the week instead.

Highlighted counts passed and are stated on the site; the rest are listed as having no calendar pattern to plan around.

Every year's picks

Eggs

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	May	+14.3%	Oct	+3.2%
2019	May, Jun	−14.1%	Feb, Mar, Oct, Dec	−5.1%
2020	May, Jun	−8.1%	Feb, Mar, Oct, Dec	−0.7%
2021	May, Jun	−10.5%	Apr	+13.0%
2022	Jun	+11.5%	Apr	−6.7%
2023	May, Jun	−15.0%	Apr	+18.5%
2024	May, Jun	−4.7%	Apr	+0.1%
2025	May, Jun	+21.7%	Mar, Apr	+34.5%

Ground beef

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	May, Jul	−3.4%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Nov	+0.1%
2019	May, Jul	+1.4%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Aug, Oct, Nov	−0.7%
2020	May, Jun, Jul, Sep	+6.2%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, Aug, Nov	−1.9%
2021	Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Dec	−0.6%	Jan, Feb, Apr, Jun, Nov	−0.5%
2022	May, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct	+0.3%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, Jun, Dec	+1.1%
2023	May, Jul, Sep, Oct	+2.7%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, Jun, Aug, Nov, Dec	−1.2%
2024	Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Oct	−0.7%	Jan, Feb, Apr, Jun, Aug, Nov, Dec	−0.7%
2025	Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Oct	−0.1%	Feb, Mar, Apr, Jun, Aug, Sep, Nov, Dec	−0.2%

Sirloin steak

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Feb	−6.7%	May, Jun	+1.2%
2019	Feb, Nov	+2.9%	May	+0.9%
2020	Feb, Nov	−8.3%	May	+0.9%
2021	Feb, Nov, Dec	−6.4%	May, Jun	+15.1%
2022	Feb, Nov, Dec	+7.9%	May, Jun	−0.2%
2023	Feb, Nov, Dec	−1.9%	May, Jun	−1.3%
2024	Feb, Sep, Nov, Dec	+0.7%	May, Jun	−1.8%
2025	Feb, Sep, Nov, Dec	−5.6%	May, Jun, Jul	+2.6%

Bacon

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Jan, Jun	−2.8%	May, Sep, Oct	−2.0%
2019	Jan, Jun	+3.7%	Sep	−3.0%
2020	Jan, Feb, Jun, Jul, Nov, Dec	+0.4%	Aug, Sep	−0.1%
2021	Jan, Feb, May, Jun, Nov, Dec	−1.5%	Apr, Aug, Sep	+2.8%
2022	Jan, Feb, Mar, May, Jun, Jul, Nov, Dec	+0.3%	Aug, Sep, Oct	+1.7%
2023	Jan, Feb, Mar, May, Jun, Nov, Dec	−1.6%	Sep	+3.6%
2024	Jan, Feb, Mar, May, Jun, Nov, Dec	−1.5%	Sep	+1.0%
2025	Jan, Feb, Mar, May, Jun, Jul, Dec	−1.3%	Sep, Oct	+6.9%

Pork chops

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Feb, May, Jun, Aug, Oct, Dec	+0.2%	Jan, Mar, Apr, Jul, Sep, Nov	−1.3%
2019	Feb, Mar, May, Jun, Aug, Oct, Nov, Dec	0.0%	Jan, Apr, Jul, Sep, Nov, Dec	−1.1%
2020	Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct	+2.3%	Jan, Mar, Apr, Jul, Aug, Sep, Nov, Dec	−3.5%
2021	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, Jul, Sep, Oct, Dec	+0.9%	Jan, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Nov	+1.3%
2022	Feb, Mar, Apr, Oct, Nov, Dec	−0.7%	Jan, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep	−0.8%
2023	Feb, Mar, Nov, Dec	−1.7%	Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep	+1.2%
2024	Feb, Mar, Nov, Dec	−1.5%	May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct	+4.0%
2025	Feb, Mar, Apr, Nov, Dec	−1.5%	May, Jun, Jul, Sep	+2.5%

Chicken breast

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Feb, Jul	−0.1%	Jan	−1.5%
2019	Feb, Mar, Dec	+0.4%	Jan	−2.7%
2020	Feb, Mar, Jun, Nov, Dec	−3.0%	Jan	−1.4%
2021	Feb, Mar, Nov	+1.5%	Jan	−4.5%
2022	Feb, Mar, Jun, Oct, Nov, Dec	−2.9%	Jan	−4.7%
2023	Feb, Mar, Oct, Nov, Dec	−3.5%	Jan	−11.9%
2024	Feb, Nov, Dec	+0.8%	Jan, May, Jul, Aug, Sep	−0.8%
2025	Feb, Nov, Dec	−3.5%	Jan, Apr, May, Jul, Aug, Sep	+2.6%

Ribeye steak

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Jan, Feb, Mar	−1.5%	Oct	−7.2%
2019	Feb	−2.6%	Jul, Oct	−1.0%
2020	Feb, Mar	+2.0%	Jun, Jul, Oct, Nov	+0.8%
2021	Feb, Mar, Apr, Aug	−3.5%	Jul, Oct, Nov	+14.9%
2022	Feb, Mar, Apr, Aug	−5.0%	Jun, Jul, Sep, Oct, Nov	0.0%
2023	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May	+0.3%	Nov	+2.3%
2024	Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Aug	0.0%	Oct, Nov	−7.1%
2025	Mar, May	−0.7%	Oct, Nov	−2.5%

Rib roast

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Jan	+13.5%	Dec	+17.0%
2019	May, Jul, Aug, Sep	−3.7%	Dec	+2.1%
2020	Jan, May, Sep	+0.2%	Dec	−4.4%
2021	Jan, May, Aug, Sep	−3.4%	Dec	+6.9%
2022	Jan, May, Aug	−9.1%	Jun, Dec	+0.4%
2023	Jan, May	+3.5%	Jun, Dec	+12.9%
2024	Jan, Feb, May, Aug	+2.0%	Jun, Dec	+2.4%
2025	Jan, Feb, May, Aug, Oct	−8.8%	Jun, Dec	+0.3%

Whole chicken

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Mar, Oct	−1.3%	Apr, May, Jul, Sep	+0.5%
2019	Oct	−1.5%	May, Jul	−0.1%
2020	Oct	−0.8%	Apr, May, Jul, Nov	+2.5%
2021	Oct	−5.2%	Jan, May, Jun, Jul	−3.7%
2022	Aug, Oct	+1.1%	Jan, Jul, Nov	+1.1%
2023	Aug, Oct	−2.3%	Jun, Jul, Nov	−0.3%
2024	Feb, Aug, Oct	+0.3%	Jun, Jul, Sep, Nov	+2.3%
2025	Aug, Oct	−3.3%	Jun, Jul, Sep, Nov	+3.5%

Chicken thighs

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Jan, Feb, Sep, Dec	−2.0%	Apr, Jul, Aug, Nov	+2.1%
2019	Jan, Feb	−3.3%	Apr	+3.4%
2020	Jan, Feb	−5.3%	Apr	+7.9%
2021	Jan, Feb, Oct	−4.7%	Apr	+3.1%
2022	Jan, Feb, Oct	−3.4%	Apr	+2.4%
2023	Jan, Feb	−3.7%	Apr	+0.5%
2024	Jan	+6.3%	Apr, Jul, Sep	−0.7%
2025	Jan, Feb	−2.7%	Apr, Sep	+0.6%

Milk

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Jun, Jul, Aug	+4.9%	Oct	+4.4%
2019	Apr, Jul, Aug	−3.1%	Oct, Nov	+4.8%
2020	Apr, May, Jul	−17.7%	Oct	+19.0%
2021	Apr, May, Jul	+3.5%	Mar, Oct, Dec	−0.1%
2022	Apr, Jul	+1.8%	Oct	+4.8%
2023	Apr, Jul	−2.5%	Oct	+4.6%
2024	Apr, Jul	−1.4%	Oct	+3.6%
2025	Apr, Jul	+9.0%	Oct	+1.8%

Butter

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Apr	−4.8%	Oct	+4.6%
2019	Apr, Nov	−2.6%	Sep, Oct	+5.8%
2020	Apr, Nov, Dec	−2.0%	Sep, Oct	+0.4%
2021	Apr, Nov, Dec	−6.5%	Sep, Oct	−2.0%
2022	Mar, Apr, Nov, Dec	+1.6%	Sep, Oct	+5.6%
2023	Apr, Nov, Dec	−0.4%	Sep, Oct	−4.6%
2024	Mar, Apr, Nov, Dec	−3.8%	Sep, Oct	+1.9%
2025	Mar, Apr, May, Nov, Dec	+2.5%	Jan, Feb, Sep, Oct	+4.0%

Cheese

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Apr, Dec	−3.7%	Jun, Oct	+8.6%
2019	Apr	−0.9%	Jun, Oct	+2.0%
2020	Apr	−3.7%	Jun, Oct	−1.1%
2021	Apr, Sep, Dec	+1.0%	Jun, Jul, Oct	+4.3%
2022	Feb, Apr, Sep, Dec	−0.3%	Jun, Jul, Oct	−0.5%
2023	Feb, Apr, Sep, Dec	+10.4%	Jun, Jul, Oct	−5.0%
2024	Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Aug, Sep, Dec	−1.8%	Jun, Jul, Oct	−1.9%
2025	Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Aug, Sep	−1.2%	Jan, Jun, Jul, Oct, Nov	−3.1%

New York strip steak

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Nov, Dec	−7.0%	Jun, Jul	+9.9%
2019	Nov, Dec	−6.3%	Jun, Jul	+4.4%
2020	Nov, Dec	−14.6%	Jun, Jul	+13.5%
2021	Nov, Dec	−4.6%	Jun	+14.0%
2022	Dec	−8.5%	Jun	+5.4%
2023	Dec	−4.5%	Jun, Jul	+0.7%
2024	Dec	−3.8%	Jun, Jul	+8.2%
2025	Dec	−4.8%	Jun, Jul	+4.8%

Greek yogurt

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec	0.0%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec	0.0%
2019	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Dec	0.0%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Nov, Dec	−0.4%
2020	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec	−0.2%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec	−0.2%
2021	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec	−0.1%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec	−0.1%
2022	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec	−0.3%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec	−0.3%
2023	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec	+0.4%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec	+0.4%
2024	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct	−0.5%	Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec	+0.3%
2025	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct	−2.1%	Feb, Mar, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec	−0.6%

Ice cream

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	May, Aug	−1.3%	Jan, Apr, Nov	−0.8%
2019	May, Aug	−2.0%	Jan, Nov	+4.3%
2020	May, Jun, Aug	−5.2%	Jan, Nov	−0.5%
2021	May, Jun	+1.3%	Jan, Oct, Nov	−0.8%
2022	May, Jun, Jul, Aug	−0.3%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, Oct, Nov, Dec	−0.3%
2023	May, Jun, Jul, Aug	−2.1%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, Oct, Nov, Dec	+3.4%
2024	May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep	−3.2%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, Oct, Nov, Dec	+2.0%
2025	May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep	−2.2%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, Oct, Nov, Dec	+2.0%

Cream cheese

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Dec	−2.6%	Sep, Oct	+6.4%
2019	Dec	−11.8%	Sep	+3.1%
2020	Dec	−6.6%	Sep, Oct	+11.7%
2021	Dec	−12.0%	Sep, Oct	+3.8%
2022	Nov, Dec	−2.8%	Aug, Sep, Oct	−1.2%
2023	Nov, Dec	−12.1%	Aug, Sep, Oct	+5.4%
2024	Nov, Dec	−6.0%	Feb, Aug, Sep, Oct	+3.5%
2025	Nov, Dec	−12.3%	Feb, Aug, Sep, Oct	+7.1%

Avocados

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Jan	−12.1%	Jun	+3.0%
2019	Jan	−18.0%	Jun, Sep	+19.2%
2020	Jan	−14.2%	Jun	+7.7%
2021	Jan	−11.4%	Jun	+11.0%
2022	Jan	+2.7%	Jun	+20.3%
2023	Jan	−14.2%	Jun	+16.2%
2024	Jan	−6.8%	Jun	+1.8%
2025	Jan	−10.4%	Jun	+11.2%

Strawberries

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul	−8.8%	Nov	+7.5%
2019	May, Jun, Jul	−11.9%	Nov	+12.9%
2020	May, Jun	−17.9%	Nov	+36.5%
2021	May, Jun	−7.3%	Nov, Dec	+28.4%
2022	May, Jun	−12.0%	Nov	+29.4%
2023	May, Jun	−11.6%	Nov	+17.6%
2024	May, Jun	−15.1%	Nov	+16.8%
2025	May, Jun	−15.9%	Nov	+35.5%

Red grapes

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Aug, Sep	−10.7%	Jan	+23.0%
2019	Aug	−16.6%	Jan	+15.2%
2020	Aug, Sep	−10.3%	Jan	+26.1%
2021	Aug	−12.9%	Jan	+11.7%
2022	Aug, Sep	−8.2%	Jan	+20.0%
2023	Aug, Sep	−15.5%	Jan	+8.5%
2024	Aug, Sep	−17.7%	Jan	+5.5%
2025	Aug	−7.3%	Jan	+32.4%

Honeycrisp apples

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Oct, Nov, Dec	−5.7%	May	+7.2%
2019	Oct, Nov, Dec	−6.8%	May, Aug	+6.7%
2020	Oct, Nov, Dec	−7.3%	May	−1.0%
2021	Oct, Nov, Dec	−8.8%	May, Jun, Aug	+11.2%
2022	Oct, Nov, Dec	−6.7%	May, Jun, Aug	+5.3%
2023	Oct, Nov, Dec	−8.4%	May, Jun, Aug	+12.5%
2024	Oct, Nov, Dec	−8.5%	Jun	−2.2%
2025	Oct, Nov, Dec	−18.6%	Jun	+20.1%

Bananas

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Jan, Feb, Aug, Sep, Oct	+0.6%	Mar, Jun, Dec	+2.9%
2019	Jan, Apr, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov	−3.4%	Mar, Jun	+0.7%
2020	Jan, Aug, Sep	+2.4%	Mar, Jun	−2.7%
2021	Jan, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov	−0.1%	Feb, Mar, Apr, Jun, Dec	−2.2%
2022	Jan, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov	+0.1%	Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Dec	+0.5%
2023	Jan, May, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov	−1.1%	Feb, Mar, Apr, Dec	+4.9%
2024	Jan, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov	+0.9%	Feb, Mar, Apr, Dec	−4.2%
2025	Jan, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov	+2.8%	Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Aug, Dec	+1.2%

Russet potatoes

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Mar, Dec	+2.2%	Jul, Aug	+0.1%
2019	Mar, Oct, Nov	+1.7%	Feb, May, Jul, Aug	−0.5%
2020	Mar, Oct, Nov	−4.9%	Feb, May, Jun, Jul, Aug	+3.6%
2021	Jan, Mar, Oct, Nov	−4.5%	May, Jun, Jul, Aug	+2.0%
2022	Jan, Mar, Oct, Nov	−2.8%	Jun, Jul, Aug	+7.6%
2023	Mar, Oct, Nov	−5.7%	Jun, Jul, Aug	+12.4%
2024	Mar, Oct, Nov	−3.3%	Jul, Aug	+2.5%
2025	Oct, Nov	+2.0%	Jul, Aug	+4.2%

Lemons

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Aug, Sep	−3.4%	Oct, Dec	+28.0%
2019	Apr, Aug, Sep	−6.9%	Feb, Dec	−3.3%
2020	Apr, Sep	−0.8%	Oct	−9.3%
2021	Sep	−12.1%	Oct	+0.6%
2022	Apr, Sep	+1.6%	Jun, Oct	+0.3%
2023	Sep	+10.3%	Jun, Oct	+5.4%
2024	Sep	+11.9%	Jun, Oct, Dec	−1.3%
2025	Aug, Sep	+0.2%	Oct	+6.7%

Tomatoes

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Jul, Aug	−7.5%	Jan, Dec	+17.5%
2019	Jul, Aug	−7.6%	Dec	+11.6%
2020	Jul	−0.3%	Dec	−0.3%
2021	Jul	−10.6%	Dec	+12.0%
2022	May, Jul	−7.6%	Jan, Dec	+8.0%
2023	May, Jul	−8.2%	Jan, Dec	+12.3%
2024	May, Jul	−9.4%	Jan, Dec	+13.8%
2025	May, Jul	−11.0%	Jan, Dec	+12.2%

Yellow onions

Year	Lower-priced months picked	Result	Higher-priced months picked	Result
2018	Jan	−6.5%	Jun, Jul	−0.4%
2019	Jan, Dec	−2.9%	Jul	+7.8%
2020	Jan, Dec	−12.7%	Jul	+7.7%
2021	Jan, Dec	−2.4%	Jul	−3.3%
2022	Jan, Dec	−0.8%	Jul	+13.1%
2023	Jan, Dec	−7.9%	Jul	+9.0%
2024	Jan, Dec	−4.5%	Jul	+4.3%
2025	Jan, Dec	−5.0%	Jul	−2.1%

8. Shopper tools: low line and buy now or wait

Low line (price checker, item pages). Each week the line is the item's 26-week median ad price times the 25th percentile of price relative to that median in the same and neighbouring months of the previous 3 years, using only data before that week. Tested on every past week: when the average ad price was at or below the line, did it fall more than 2% further within the next 4 weeks? Compared with the same rate for all weeks. A price at or below the line is called "good" only if that happened in no more than 30% of at least 30 such weeks over at least 5 years, and less often than in all weeks. Otherwise the checker shows the line and the rates without the word "good".

Buy now or wait a week (item pages). For each calendar month, the advice ("buy now" or "wait") is picked from earlier years only, from how often next week's ad price was lower vs higher or missing. Each later year's same month is scored in money: the average saving from following the advice vs the other choice, with a week that had no ad the next week counted as a 5% loss for waiting. Stated only with at least 8 tested years, saving money in at least 70% of them, by at least 2% on average.

Regional low lines in the price checker are tested the same way on each region's own prices.