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The best time of year to buy groceries
In which months each item's advertised sale price has been lower (or higher) than its trend, from USDA grocery-ad data since 2014. The method was tested year by year, picking months from earlier years only; an item is listed only where its picks came in below the trend in at least 80% of later years, by at least 2% on average. History, not a forecast.
Month by month
| Month | Lower-priced | Higher-priced |
|---|---|---|
| October | Honeycrisp apples | Milk, Cream cheese |
| November | Cream cheese, Honeycrisp apples | Chicken thighs, Strawberries |
| December | New York strip steak, Cream cheese, Yellow onions | Rib roast, Chicken thighs, Tomatoes |
| January | Chicken thighs, Avocados, Yellow onions | Red grapes, Tomatoes |
| February | Chicken thighs | – |
| March | – | – |
| April | – | Chicken thighs |
| May | Strawberries, Tomatoes | – |
| June | Strawberries | Rib roast, New York strip steak, Avocados |
| July | – | New York strip steak, Russet potatoes |
| August | Red grapes | Cream cheese, Russet potatoes |
| September | – | Chicken thighs, Cream cheese |
Item by item
| Item | Lower-priced months | Method's record | Higher-priced months | Method's record | Latest reported ad price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rib roast | no dependable pattern | June and December | 7 of 8 yrs, +4.7% | $11.18/lb | |
| Chicken thighs | January and February | 7 of 8 yrs, −2.3% | April, September, November and December | 7 of 8 yrs, +2.4% | $1.20/lb |
| Milk | no dependable pattern | October | 7 of 8 yrs, +5.4% | $3.51 per gallon | |
| New York strip steak | December | 8 of 8 yrs, −6.8% | June and July | 8 of 8 yrs, +7.6% | $15.60/lb |
| Cream cheese | November and December | 8 of 8 yrs, −8.3% | August, September and October | 7 of 8 yrs, +5.0% | $2.73 per 8 oz pack |
| Avocados | January | 7 of 8 yrs, −10.5% | June | 8 of 8 yrs, +11.3% | $0.99 per avocado |
| Strawberries | May and June | 8 of 8 yrs, −12.6% | November | 8 of 8 yrs, +23.1% | $3.22 per 1 lb pack |
| Red grapes | August | 8 of 8 yrs, −12.4% | January | 8 of 8 yrs, +17.8% | $2.30/lb |
| Honeycrisp apples | October and November | 8 of 8 yrs, −8.8% | no dependable pattern | $1.83/lb | |
| Russet potatoes | no dependable pattern | July and August | 7 of 8 yrs, +4.0% | $2.97 per 5 lb bag | |
| Tomatoes | May | 8 of 8 yrs, −7.8% | January and December | 7 of 8 yrs, +10.9% | $1.73/lb |
| Yellow onions | January and December | 8 of 8 yrs, −5.3% | no dependable pattern | $3.12 per 3 lb bag |
"Method's record" = in how many later years the months picked from earlier years alone came in below (or above) the item's trend, and by how much on average. Those picks weren't always today's months; each item's page says how often they matched. The trend is the item's average over the 13 months around each month, so inflation and price spikes don't tilt it.
No calendar pattern to plan around
We haven't found a calendar pattern strong enough to plan around for these items: eggs, ground beef, sirloin steak, bacon, pork chops, chicken breast, ribeye steak, whole chicken, butter, cheese, greek yogurt, ice cream, bananas and lemons. Watch the weekly price instead, or use the price checker.
Holiday foods
Turkey, ham, prime rib and pumpkins are tied to holidays, so they're timed by the week instead: When are Thanksgiving turkeys cheapest? · When is Christmas ham cheapest? · When is Easter ham cheapest? · When is prime rib cheapest for Christmas? · When are Halloween pumpkins cheapest?.
How the months are tested. History, not a forecast.