Grocery Price CheckAll groceries › Rib roast › Christmas
When is prime rib cheapest for Christmas?
Rib roast (boneless ribeye roast, prime rib) in US grocery ads, the 8 weeks before Christmas and Christmas week, 2014–2025. Christmas is 8 weeks away.
How the method held up: for each season we picked the lower-priced weeks using only earlier seasons, then checked that season. The picks (not always these weeks: they matched today's in 0 of 7 seasons) averaged below that season's window average in 4 of 7 seasons (−0.7% on average; best season −10.3%, worst +16.1%). 2 seasons were left out because not every picked week had ads. How we check.
The historical pattern
Descriptive, all completed seasons: average ad price each week compared with that season's average for the whole window. Below zero = lower than that season's average. Weeks with ads in fewer than 6 seasons are left out. These in-sample figures are larger than the walk-forward results above.
We haven't found a pattern strong enough to plan around: weeks picked from earlier seasons came in below the window average in 4 of 7 later seasons.
Every season
| Year | Christmas | Lowest-priced week | Price | Christmas week | Weeks with ads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Dec 25 | 2 weeks before (Dec 8) | $10.35 | $12.06 | 8 of 9 |
| 2024 | Dec 25 | 6 weeks before (Nov 11) | $6.94 | $13.88 | 9 of 9 |
| 2023 | Dec 25 | 7 weeks before (Nov 3) | $7.42 | $12.07 | 7 of 9 |
| 2022 | Dec 25 | 3 weeks before (Dec 2) | $7.26 | $9.47 | 9 of 9 |
| 2021 | Dec 25 | 8 weeks before (Oct 29) | $5.59 | $9.94 | 9 of 9 |
| 2020 | Dec 25 | 3 weeks before (Dec 4) | $6.16 | $9.73 | 9 of 9 |
| 2019 | Dec 25 | 2 weeks before (Dec 6) | $6.39 | $9.33 | 9 of 9 |
| 2018 | Dec 25 | 3 weeks before (Nov 30) | $3.99 | $8.96 | 9 of 9 |
| 2017 | Dec 25 | 7 weeks before (Nov 3) | $5.99 | $9.38 | 9 of 9 |
| 2016 | Dec 25 | 7 weeks before (Nov 4) | $6.13 | $8.35 | 9 of 9 |
| 2015 | Dec 25 | 3 weeks before (Dec 4) | $7.04 | $8.61 | 9 of 9 |
| 2014 | Dec 25 | 8 weeks before (Oct 24) | $6.24 | $9.23 | 7 of 9 |
Advertised sale prices per lb, averaged across stores by how many stores USDA reports running each price. Weeks are counted back from Christmas by report date. History, not a forecast. Download weekly prices (CSV) · Report a correction.
Questions
When do rib roast prices drop before Christmas?
We haven't found a pattern strong enough to plan around: weeks picked from earlier seasons came in below the season's average in 4 of 7 later seasons.
How much is rib roast per pound right now?
The average advertised sale price in USDA's latest report (week of Oct 19, 2026) was $11.18 per pound.
Is it cheaper to wait until Christmas week?
Usually not. The weeks this method picked from earlier seasons averaged below the Christmas-week ad price in 6 of 7 seasons, by 10% on average.