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When is Easter ham cheapest?
Spiral ham (spiral-sliced, bone-in) in US grocery ads, the 8 weeks before Easter and Easter week, 2014–2026.
How the method held up: for each season we picked the lower-priced weeks using only earlier seasons, then checked that season. The picks (not always these weeks: they matched today's in 6 of 9 seasons) averaged below that season's window average in 5 of 9 seasons (−3.8% on average; best season −52.7%, worst +69.7%). 1 season was left out because not every picked week had ads. How we check.
The historical pattern
Descriptive, all completed seasons: average ad price each week compared with that season's average for the whole window. Below zero = lower than that season's average. Weeks with ads in fewer than 7 seasons are left out. These in-sample figures are larger than the walk-forward results above.
We haven't found a pattern strong enough to plan around: weeks picked from earlier seasons came in below the window average in 5 of 9 later seasons.
Every season
| Year | Easter | Lowest-priced week | Price | Easter week | Weeks with ads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Apr 5 | 5 weeks before (Feb 23) | $0.89 | $2.25 | 9 of 9 |
| 2025 | Apr 20 | 3 weeks before (Mar 24) | $1.28 | $2.23 | 8 of 9 |
| 2024 | Mar 31 | 8 weeks before (Feb 2) | $1.35 | $2.46 | 7 of 9 |
| 2023 | Apr 9 | 5 weeks before (Mar 3) | $1.37 | $2.53 | 8 of 9 |
| 2022 | Apr 17 | 2 weeks before (Apr 1) | $1.68 | $2.37 | 8 of 9 |
| 2021 | Apr 4 | 5 weeks before (Feb 26) | $1.15 | $1.96 | 9 of 9 |
| 2020 | Apr 12 | Easter week (Apr 10) | $1.88 | $1.88 | 9 of 9 |
| 2019 | Apr 21 | 4 weeks before (Mar 22) | $0.99 | $2.03 | 9 of 9 |
| 2018 | Apr 1 | 5 weeks before (Feb 23) | $1.08 | $1.97 | 9 of 9 |
| 2017 | Apr 16 | 7 weeks before (Feb 24) | $1.72 | $2.13 | 9 of 9 |
| 2016 | Mar 27 | 5 weeks before (Feb 19) | $1.61 | $2.23 | 9 of 9 |
| 2015 | Apr 5 | 8 weeks before (Feb 6) | $2.01 | $2.28 | 9 of 9 |
| 2014 | Apr 20 | 8 weeks before (Feb 21) | $1.67 | $2.39 | 9 of 9 |
Advertised sale prices per lb, averaged across stores by how many stores USDA reports running each price. Weeks are counted back from Easter by report date. History, not a forecast. Download weekly prices (CSV) · Report a correction.
Questions
When do spiral ham prices drop before Easter?
We haven't found a pattern strong enough to plan around: weeks picked from earlier seasons came in below the season's average in 5 of 9 later seasons.
How much is spiral ham per pound right now?
The average advertised sale price in USDA's latest report (week of Oct 19, 2026) was $2.99 per pound.
Is it cheaper to wait until Easter week?
No clear advantage either way: the earlier weeks this method picked were lower-priced in 4 of 9 seasons, Easter week in 5.