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When are Halloween pumpkins cheapest?
Pumpkins (carving pumpkin, each) in US grocery ads, the 8 weeks before Halloween and Halloween week, 2014–2025. Halloween is this week.
How the method held up: for each season we picked the lower-priced weeks using only earlier seasons, then checked that season. The picks (not always these weeks: they matched today's in 0 of 9 seasons) averaged below that season's window average in 9 of 9 seasons (−6.5% on average; best season −15.9%, worst −0.1%). How we check.
This season so far (2026): 7 weeks of ads; lowest so far $5.31 (4 weeks before, Oct 3). The same weeks last season averaged $5.78; this season is 3% lower. This season isn't counted in the pattern until it's over.
The historical pattern
Descriptive, all completed seasons: average ad price each week compared with that season's average for the whole window. Below zero = lower than that season's average. Weeks with ads in fewer than 6 seasons are left out. These in-sample figures are larger than the walk-forward results above.
Regions this week, lowest price first
| Region | Avg. ad price | Stores advertising |
|---|---|---|
| South central | $4.51 | 500 |
| Midwest | $5.06 | 1,118 |
| Southwest | $5.33 | 1,065 |
| Northeast | $6.06 | 1,289 |
| Northwest | $6.36 | 749 |
| Southeast | $6.54 | 2,091 |
| US average | $5.85 | 6,812 |
Week of Oct 17, per pumpkin. Among regions with at least 25 stores advertising; the others are left out. One week's ranking, not a pattern.
Every season
| Year | Halloween | Lowest-priced week | Price | Halloween week | Weeks with ads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oct 31 | 5 weeks before (Sep 20) | $5.39 | $7.18 | 9 of 9 |
| 2024 | Oct 31 | 4 weeks before (Sep 28) | $5.33 | $6.85 | 9 of 9 |
| 2023 | Oct 31 | 3 weeks before (Oct 7) | $5.22 | – | 8 of 9 |
| 2022 | Oct 31 | 3 weeks before (Oct 8) | $4.79 | $7.32 | 9 of 9 |
| 2021 | Oct 31 | 3 weeks before (Oct 9) | $4.09 | $5.99 | 9 of 9 |
| 2020 | Oct 31 | 3 weeks before (Oct 10) | $3.61 | – | 8 of 9 |
| 2019 | Oct 31 | 4 weeks before (Sep 28) | $3.40 | $5.00 | 8 of 9 |
| 2018 | Oct 31 | 4 weeks before (Sep 29) | $3.30 | $4.70 | 9 of 9 |
| 2017 | Oct 31 | 2 weeks before (Oct 14) | $3.89 | – | 8 of 9 |
| 2016 | Oct 31 | 2 weeks before (Oct 15) | $3.95 | $4.99 | 9 of 9 |
| 2015 | Oct 31 | 5 weeks before (Sep 26) | $3.90 | – | 8 of 9 |
| 2014 | Oct 31 | 3 weeks before (Oct 4) | $3.62 | $3.63 | 9 of 9 |
Advertised sale prices per pumpkin, averaged across stores by how many stores USDA reports running each price. Weeks are counted back from Halloween by report date. History, not a forecast. Download weekly prices (CSV) · Report a correction.
Questions
When do pumpkin prices drop before Halloween?
Across all past seasons, pumpkin ads have been lowest-priced on average 3–4 weeks before Halloween. Tested season by season, the weeks this method picked from earlier seasons only (not always these weeks: they matched today's in 0 of 9 seasons) averaged −6.5% vs that season's average and came in below it in 9 of 9 seasons.
How much is a pumpkin right now?
The average advertised sale price in USDA's latest report (week of Oct 17, 2026) was $5.85 per pumpkin; in the same week before Halloween last season it was $5.74. Lowest-priced region in that report: the South central, at $4.51.
Is it cheaper to wait until Halloween week?
Usually not. The weeks this method picked from earlier seasons averaged below the Halloween-week ad price in 6 of 6 seasons, by 23% on average.