Grocery Price CheckHolidays › Thanksgiving basket
How much does Thanksgiving dinner cost in 2026?
A fixed list of eight core Thanksgiving groceries, priced at the average advertised sale price in US grocery ads, from USDA data. Not a full dinner: see what's left out below. Thanksgiving: November 26, 2026. Latest USDA report: week of October 19, 2026, 38 days before.
Short answer: This eight-item Thanksgiving grocery basket averages $39.62 in advertised prices, from USDA reports dated Sep 22–Oct 19, 2026. It isn't a complete dinner or a quote from one store. In all 11 comparable past seasons the basket was lower in the 4 weeks before Thanksgiving than 42 days before it. The size of the drop has varied too much for a reliable dollar forecast this far out.
October isn't Thanksgiving pricing: last year this basket cost $42.82 in these same weeks and $34.73 in the 4 weeks before Thanksgiving, 19% less. When turkey ads have been lower-priced.
What's in it
| Item | Quantity bought | Avg. ad price now | Cost now | Cost before Thanksgiving 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whole turkey | 14 lb | $1.27 per lb | $17.78 | $15.96 |
| Russet potatoes | 5 lb bag | $3.00 per 5 lb bag | $3.00 | $2.78 |
| Sweet potatoes | 3 lb | $1.31 per lb | $3.93 | $2.58 |
| Green beans | 2 lb | $2.17 per lb | $4.34 | $3.54 |
| Fresh cranberries | 12 oz bag | $2.57 per 12 oz bag | $2.57 | $2.16 |
| Celery | 1 bunch | $1.68 each | $1.68 | $1.51 |
| Yellow onions | 3 lb bag | $2.66 per 3 lb bag | $2.66 | $2.55 |
| Butter | 1 lb | $3.66 per lb | $3.66 | $3.65 |
| Total | $39.62 | $34.73 |
Totals price the listed purchase quantities, not just the portions eaten. This is a benchmark built from average advertised prices, not a checkout quote: the prices may not all be on offer at one store at the same time. Prices are averages of the weekly reports in each 4-week window; an item needs at least 2 weekly reports in a window or the total isn't shown.
Will it get cheaper before Thanksgiving?
We compare each past season's basket 42 days before Thanksgiving (the nearest fixed check point at or beyond today's 38 days) with its last 4 weeks before Thanksgiving. It was lower nearer Thanksgiving in all 11 seasons; the median change was −15%, ranging from −42% to −9%. 2021 is left out: not every item had enough ads to total the basket.
No reliable dollar forecast is available 42 days out. Projected for each past season from earlier seasons only, it missed by 11.8% on average, by 50% at worst. Every season's numbers.
By region
In 11 of 11 past Thanksgiving seasons with enough ads, the Midwest basket came in below the national basket.
| Region | Before Thanksgiving 2025 | vs US basket | Latest 4 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast | $32.87 | −5.4% | $40.07 |
| South central | $34.14 | −1.7% | not enough ads yet |
| Midwest | $34.30 | −1.2% | $38.12 |
| Northeast | $35.58 | +2.4% | not enough ads yet |
| Southwest | $36.10 | +3.9% | not enough ads yet |
| Northwest | $39.34 | +13.3% | not enough ads yet |
The same eight items priced from each region's ads. An item needs at least 2 weekly reports and an average of 25 stores advertising in the window, so early in the season some regions can't be totalled yet. Alaska and Hawaii have too few stores to total.
What's left out
- Stuffing or bread, rolls, gravy, pie and pie ingredients (flour, sugar, canned pumpkin, evaporated milk), spices, drinks and other mains like ham. USDA's ad reports don't cover most of these consistently.
- Organic versions, other turkey sizes, frozen-vs-fresh differences and store-brand vs name-brand differences.
- Free-turkey-with-purchase deals and loyalty-card or coupon prices beyond the advertised price.
Each item's average comes from many stores' ads, so you may not find every price at one store at the same time.
Every Thanksgiving since 2014
| Year | Thanksgiving | Basket | vs year before | Whole turkey (14 lb) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Nov 27 | $34.73 | −5.4% | $15.96 |
| 2024 | Nov 28 | $36.71 | +0.9% | $17.22 |
| 2023 | Nov 23 | $36.38 | −2.2% | $17.50 |
| 2022 | Nov 24 | $37.20 | +16.5% | $17.36 |
| 2021 | Nov 25 | $31.93 | +8.5% | $15.40 |
| 2020 | Nov 26 | $29.44 | +1.1% | $13.72 |
| 2019 | Nov 28 | $29.12 | +0.9% | $13.30 |
| 2018 | Nov 22 | $28.85 | −4.4% | $12.88 |
| 2017 | Nov 23 | $30.17 | −0.2% | $13.86 |
| 2016 | Nov 24 | $30.23 | −0.0% | $15.26 |
| 2015 | Nov 26 | $30.24 | +0.4% | $15.26 |
| 2014 | Nov 27 | $30.13 | – | $13.86 |
Each year uses the same eight items and quantities, priced from the weekly ad reports dated in the 4 weeks up to Thanksgiving Day. Not adjusted for inflation.
Questions
What does this total include?
14 lb whole turkey, russet potatoes, sweet potatoes, green beans, fresh cranberries, celery, yellow onions and butter, at the average advertised price in US grocery ads. It leaves out stuffing, rolls, desserts and drinks (see above), and it isn't a quote from one store. In the 4 weeks before Thanksgiving 2025 the same list averaged $34.73.
Is it lower than last year?
Compared with the same weeks a year ago, the basket is 7.5% lower ($39.62 vs $42.82). The fairer comparison with last Thanksgiving comes in the final 4 weeks, when ads reach their Thanksgiving prices.
Should I buy the whole turkey now or wait?
Across past seasons, turkey ads have been lowest-priced on average 2 weeks before Thanksgiving. The week-by-week history and how it was tested.
Which regions have been lower-priced?
In 11 of 11 past Thanksgiving seasons with enough ads, the Midwest basket came in below the national basket. Regional totals for the latest 4 weeks are in the table above, among regions with enough stores advertising.
How is this different from the Farm Bureau's survey?
The American Farm Bureau Federation's annual survey prices a fuller dinner for 10, including stuffing, rolls and pie, from prices volunteer shoppers collect in stores in early November. This basket is narrower (eight core items) but uses advertised prices from thousands of stores' ads every week, back to 2014, by region.
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