Grocery Price CheckAll groceries › Whole turkey › Thanksgiving
When are Thanksgiving turkeys cheapest?
Whole turkey (whole, conventional) in US grocery ads, the 8 weeks before Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving week, 2014–2025. Thanksgiving is 4 weeks away.
Pricing the sides too? The Thanksgiving sale-price basket: turkey, potatoes, sweet potatoes, green beans, cranberries, celery, onions and butter, every year since 2014.
How the method held up: for each season we picked the lower-priced weeks using only earlier seasons, then checked that season. The picks (not always these weeks: they matched today's in 0 of 8 seasons) averaged below that season's window average in 8 of 8 seasons (−9.2% on average; best season −22.7%, worst −1.3%). 1 season was left out because not every picked week had ads. How we check.
This year: 2 weeks before Thanksgiving means USDA's weekly ad reports dated about Nov 6–12, 2026.
This season so far (2026): 3 weeks of ads; lowest so far $1.23 (6 weeks before, Oct 12). The same weeks last season averaged $1.54; this season is 18% lower. This season isn't counted in the pattern until it's over.
The historical pattern
Descriptive, all completed seasons: average ad price each week compared with that season's average for the whole window. Below zero = lower than that season's average. Weeks with ads in fewer than 6 seasons are left out. These in-sample figures are larger than the walk-forward results above.
Regions this week, lowest price first
| Region | Avg. ad price | Stores advertising |
|---|---|---|
| Southwest | $1.15 | 420 |
| Northwest | $1.19 | 189 |
| Midwest | $1.26 | 727 |
| South central | $1.28 | 485 |
| Southeast | $1.31 | 451 |
| Northeast | $1.99 | 182 |
| US average | $1.30 | 2,465 |
Week of Oct 19, per lb. Among regions with at least 25 stores advertising; the others are left out. One week's ranking, not a pattern.
Every season
| Year | Thanksgiving | Lowest-priced week | Price | Thanksgiving week | Weeks with ads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Nov 27 | 3 weeks before (Nov 3) | $0.96 | $1.30 | 7 of 9 |
| 2024 | Nov 28 | 2 weeks before (Nov 11) | $1.05 | $1.34 | 8 of 9 |
| 2023 | Nov 23 | 5 weeks before (Oct 13) | $0.99 | $1.45 | 8 of 9 |
| 2022 | Nov 24 | 2 weeks before (Nov 10) | $0.98 | $1.38 | 8 of 9 |
| 2021 | Nov 25 | 1 week before (Nov 12) | $0.93 | $1.26 | 5 of 9 |
| 2020 | Nov 26 | 6 weeks before (Oct 9) | $0.70 | $1.12 | 7 of 9 |
| 2019 | Nov 28 | 5 weeks before (Oct 18) | $0.72 | $1.10 | 8 of 9 |
| 2018 | Nov 22 | 3 weeks before (Oct 26) | $0.84 | $1.08 | 9 of 9 |
| 2017 | Nov 23 | 2 weeks before (Nov 3) | $0.83 | $1.17 | 9 of 9 |
| 2016 | Nov 24 | 6 weeks before (Oct 7) | $0.95 | $1.26 | 8 of 9 |
| 2015 | Nov 26 | 1 week before (Nov 13) | $0.98 | $1.26 | 9 of 9 |
| 2014 | Nov 27 | 4 weeks before (Oct 24) | $0.86 | $1.23 | 9 of 9 |
Advertised sale prices per lb, averaged across stores by how many stores USDA reports running each price. Weeks are counted back from Thanksgiving by report date. History, not a forecast. Download weekly prices (CSV) · Report a correction.
Questions
When do turkey prices drop before Thanksgiving?
Across all past seasons, turkey ads have been lowest-priced on average 2 weeks before Thanksgiving (USDA reports dated about Nov 6–12 this year). Tested season by season, the weeks this method picked from earlier seasons only (not always these weeks: they matched today's in 0 of 8 seasons) averaged −9.2% vs that season's average and came in below it in 8 of 8 seasons.
How much is turkey per pound right now?
The average advertised sale price in USDA's latest report (week of Oct 19, 2026) was $1.30 per pound. Lowest-priced region in that report: the Southwest, at $1.15.
Is it cheaper to wait until Thanksgiving week?
Usually not. The weeks this method picked from earlier seasons averaged below the Thanksgiving-week ad price in 8 of 8 seasons, by 16% on average.