Grocery Price CheckHolidays › Christmas basket
How much does Christmas dinner cost in 2026?
A fixed list of seven core Christmas groceries, priced at the average advertised sale price in US grocery ads, from USDA data. Not a full dinner: see what's left out below. Christmas: December 25, 2026. Latest USDA report: week of October 19, 2026, 67 days before.
Short answer: This seven-item Christmas grocery basket averages $42.80 in advertised prices, from USDA reports dated Sep 22–Oct 19, 2026. It isn't a complete dinner or a quote from one store. In all 12 comparable past seasons the basket was lower in the 4 weeks before Christmas than 70 days before it. The size of the drop has varied too much for a reliable dollar forecast this far out.
October isn't Christmas pricing: last year this basket cost $46.80 in these same weeks and $35.17 in the 4 weeks before Christmas, 25% less. When ham ads have been lower-priced · Prime rib (rib roast) prices before Christmas.
What's in it
| Item | Quantity bought | Avg. ad price now | Cost now | Cost before Christmas 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spiral ham | 8 lb | $2.99 per lb | $23.92 | $17.60 |
| Russet potatoes | 5 lb bag | $3.00 per 5 lb bag | $3.00 | $2.42 |
| Sweet potatoes | 3 lb | $1.31 per lb | $3.93 | $2.91 |
| Green beans | 2 lb | $2.17 per lb | $4.34 | $3.70 |
| Yellow onions | 3 lb bag | $2.66 per 3 lb bag | $2.66 | $2.58 |
| Butter | 1 lb | $3.66 per lb | $3.66 | $3.78 |
| Eggs | 1 dozen | $1.29 per dozen | $1.29 | $2.18 |
| Total | $42.80 | $35.17 |
Totals price the listed purchase quantities, not just the portions eaten. This is a benchmark built from average advertised prices, not a checkout quote: the prices may not all be on offer at one store at the same time. Prices are averages of the weekly reports in each 4-week window; an item needs at least 2 weekly reports in a window or the total isn't shown.
Will it get cheaper before Christmas?
We compare each past season's basket 70 days before Christmas (the nearest fixed check point at or beyond today's 67 days) with its last 4 weeks before Christmas. It was lower nearer Christmas in all 12 seasons; the median change was −23%, ranging from −30% to −4%.
No reliable dollar forecast is available 70 days out. Projected for each past season from earlier seasons only, it missed by 10.1% on average, by 30.1% at worst. Every season's numbers.
By region
In 11 of 11 past Christmas seasons with enough ads, the South central basket came in below the national basket.
| Region | Before Christmas 2025 | vs US basket | Latest 4 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | $34.78 | −1.1% | not enough ads yet |
| South central | $34.79 | −1.1% | not enough ads yet |
| Midwest | $35.06 | −0.3% | not enough ads yet |
| Southeast | $36.57 | +4.0% | not enough ads yet |
| Southwest | – | – | not enough ads yet |
| Northwest | – | – | not enough ads yet |
The same seven items priced from each region's ads. An item needs at least 2 weekly reports and an average of 25 stores advertising in the window, so early in the season some regions can't be totalled yet. Alaska and Hawaii have too few stores to total.
What's left out
- Rolls, stuffing, gravy, desserts, flour and sugar, spices and drinks. USDA's ad reports don't cover most of these consistently.
- Other mains: prime rib, beef tenderloin, turkey. Prime rib has its own page (below).
- Organic versions, boneless or half hams, store-brand vs name-brand differences, and loyalty-card or coupon prices beyond the advertised price.
Each item's average comes from many stores' ads, so you may not find every price at one store at the same time.
Every Christmas since 2014
| Year | Christmas | Basket | vs year before | Spiral ham (8 lb) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Dec 25 | $35.17 | −0.3% | $17.60 |
| 2024 | Dec 25 | $35.26 | −14.2% | $17.36 |
| 2023 | Dec 25 | $41.10 | +4.3% | $22.96 |
| 2022 | Dec 25 | $39.40 | +13.1% | $20.48 |
| 2021 | Dec 25 | $34.85 | +11.6% | $19.68 |
| 2020 | Dec 25 | $31.24 | −5.0% | $16.96 |
| 2019 | Dec 25 | $32.88 | −1.0% | $18.56 |
| 2018 | Dec 25 | $33.21 | +4.2% | $18.48 |
| 2017 | Dec 25 | $31.87 | +4.8% | $17.44 |
| 2016 | Dec 25 | $30.42 | −4.8% | $17.60 |
| 2015 | Dec 25 | $31.96 | −16.6% | $17.20 |
| 2014 | Dec 25 | $38.34 | – | $23.68 |
Each year uses the same seven items and quantities, priced from the weekly ad reports dated in the 4 weeks up to Christmas Day. Not adjusted for inflation.
Questions
What does this total include?
8 lb spiral ham, russet potatoes, sweet potatoes, green beans, yellow onions, butter and eggs, at the average advertised price in US grocery ads. It leaves out stuffing, rolls, desserts and drinks (see above), and it isn't a quote from one store. In the 4 weeks before Christmas 2025 the same list averaged $35.17.
Is it lower than last year?
Compared with the same weeks a year ago, the basket is 8.5% lower ($42.80 vs $46.80). The fairer comparison with last Christmas comes in the final 4 weeks, when ads reach their Christmas prices.
Should I buy the spiral ham now or wait?
Across past seasons, spiral ham ads have been lowest-priced on average 2 weeks before through christmas week. The week-by-week history and how it was tested.
Which regions have been lower-priced?
In 11 of 11 past Christmas seasons with enough ads, the South central basket came in below the national basket. Regional totals for the latest 4 weeks are in the table above, among regions with enough stores advertising.
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